Macro Economic on Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism

By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)

      Economic activity is any activity of an economic community in a district, province and country that can give various economic benefits in the form of profits, production and trade system channel for the provision of goods and services (including finansil) for consumption needs and existing community services in the region and his country. This economic activity would provide a dynamic of growth for economic progress and prosperity to economic actors (profit), employees and labor (salaries and wages), and for the stakeholders ie the state (taxes) and society (multiplier effect). Economic activity will provide an aspect of the dynamics of growth with a rise and fall of economic conditions in the production of goods and services, investment flows out of the entry and finansil real, monetary and fiscal sector, the government in running the government according to the State Budget, the import and export activities of various economic activities other.

       Economic growth in the form of economic dynamics is an Economy Biorhytmic a region, province and country that shaped the strains and economic fluctuations are often given in the form of a variety of "Macroeconomic indicators" of economic growth rates, inflation rates, interest rates and prime rate, exchange rate, foreign reserves, surplus, trade deficit in the Balance of International Payments and the government budget (Current Account), Money Supply (Money Based Indicator), the price of fuel and basic food commodities and raw materials and industrial consumption, and others. But also important is the Debt Service Ratio is a country in managing its debts in order to provide a rational leverage for economic progress as well as to pay back its debt repayments (2009-2010 European cases such as Greece, Spain and Portugal). Strangely most of the major world countries and companies will always protect all its debts by way of hedging or reinsurance Credit Default Swap is similar, but with high risk and the cost is quite expensive that is often peddled by the Global Investment Banking. Though the risk itself basically can not "protected" safely with a variety of swap and hedging of economic turmoil because of the economic cycle by natural forces.

         With economic indicators, the economists forecast on economy tried to do a monthly, quarterly, quarterly and yearly in the form of minutes of "Economic Outlook" to describe the economic performance for the government and corporates in determining a variety of strategic planning in government economic policy and the policy of the corporates business to various economic data macro that has been predicted. But the main problem is that often the government economists and economic analysts can not give an exact prediction with a variety of econometric calculations in the field of monetary and fiscal policy, so that each quarter until the annual reluctantly have to revise the predictions of its economy to be adjusted (adjustment) with the real macro-economic conditions . This is caused by the use of various econometric formulas that are linear and the dimension 1 to predict the dimension of human economic activity is more complex (dimensions 1-3) and assisted statistical science (static / unmovable) to predict the various dynamics (movable) from various matrices and combinations physical condition, mental, expectations, achievements, spirit, appetite and other psychological factors of a number of hundreds of millions and even billions of human beings consumers and producers in a country and the world. Economics only understand about how to maximizied profit and grow up every time as a prospect and economic opportunity, whereas if the decline is says a losses, uncertainty and even risks that need and must to be avoided.

       Though the rise and fall conditions and economic growth is a natural manifestation of human beings activities such as day and night, wake and sleep, healthy and sick, happy and sad, success and failure. This makes economic man often does not understand the supernatural and the natural effect of various economic activities. For this reason economists and businessman need to know more about the strains and fluctuation biorhytm and biocycle (already widely used by sports science, medical, psychology and agriculture) to avoid a declining economic cycle anticipation, even a preventive manner to avoid the risk of loss, failure and bankruptcy (insolvent). Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic method is preventive ways with an early warning system for economic and business can avoid the risk of loss, market risk, operational risk, strategic planning risk, interest rate risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, currency fluctuation risks, the risk of fuel price hike, prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials, default risk, competition risk, the risk of changing tastes and needs of consumers and various other risks that could make the company at risk of loss, risk demand workers' rights and bankruptcy risk.